4.3.7 Modellbildung und Simulation I/II — Modelling and Simulation I/II

Vorlesung mit Übung als Block in der 35., 36. und 37. Kalenderwoche
30 lectures and 12 laboratories (90 minutes each) from August 27 to September 12, 2001
6 credit points

Beginn: Montag, 27. August 2001, 09:15 (MB 017)

Aims Objectives Syllabus Recommended Reading ZUMA Workshop Organisation

Aims

The aim of this module is a broad introduction into all approaches to simulation in the social sciences. This module is designed for students in their 5th or 7th semester. It covers the basics of modelling and simulation in the social sciences from different points of view (mathematics, computer science, philosophy of science) and of seven different approaches to computer simulation in the social sciences. In the winter terms of 1999/2000, 2000/2001, 2001/2002 this module will be offered annually as an English language module. Each year there will be about ten Ukrainian students from Dnipropetrovsk State University who participate in the lectures and laboratories as part of the Joint European Project on ``Simulation and Internet Courses in the Social Sciences''. The module will also be available as a Distance Learning Module.

Objectives

By the end of this module, a student should understand

what simulation is good for in the social sciences and
which steps should be taken to arrive at a useful computer simulation

and he or she should know

which approaches have been followed by social scientist in the past decades,
what the aims of these approaches were
and which advantages and shortcomings these approaches have.

Moreover, students should be able to make use of a number of different simulation tools and have gained some experience in designing their own models.

Syllabus

Simulation and Social Science — history, taxonomy, motives, simulation from a philosophy of science point of view
Simulation as a Method — logic of simulation, stages of simulation-based research
Systems Dynamics and World Models — classical approaches to macro simulation, differential equations, macro simulation tools, qualitative simulation
Microanalytical Simulation Models — classical approaches to micro simulation, tax and pension models, recent tools
Queuing Models — discrete event simulation, business process modeling, tools
Multilevel Modelling — modelling global interactions between populations, groups and individuals, stochastic processes, synergetics
Cellular Automata — game theory, modelling local interactions in large populations of identical actors
Distributed Artificial Intelligence Models — agent based social simulation
Learning and Evolutionary Models — artificial neural networks, genetic algorithms

Assessment

Assessment will be 100% on laboratory assignment. There will be no examination.

ZUMA Workshop

The first week of this module will be combined with a ZUMA workshop on ``Simulation for the Social Sciences''.

Organisation

Courses and laboratories will be given by Klaus G. Troitzsch, Nigel Gilbert (first week only), Michael Möhring and Christian Oelbermann.

During the first week (August 27 to 31) an overview will be given of all social simulation approaches (see Syllabus). Lectures are scheduled as follows:

Monday:
- 9:15 to 10:00 Introduction (Jürgen Hoffmeyer-Zlotnik, ZUMA, Nigel Gilbert, University of Surrey, Klaus G. Troitzsch, Universität Koblenz-Landau)
- 10:15 to 11:15 Unit 1
- 11:15 to 11:30 Forming small discussion groups
- 11:30 to 12:30 Discussion of models to be simulated, in small groups
- 12:30 to 13:30 Lunch break
- 13:30 to 14:30 Unit 2
- 14:45 to 15:45 Plenary discussion of the small group results
Tuesday through Thursday
- 9:15 to 10:45 and 13:30 to 15:00 lecture units 3 through 8
- 11:15 to 12:45 and 15:15 to 16:45 labs
- 17 to 18 evening lectures
  - Igor Lyashenko, Kiev: Modeling Ecological and Economic Processes, on Tuesday
  - Yuri Svirezhev, Potsdam: Non-linear problems in mathematical ecology: Would we live in a Volterra world?, on Wednesday
  - Ulrich O. Mueller, Marburg: Is there a stabilising selection in modern human populations?. on Thursday
  On Tuesday evening we will have a social event at the Wagner vinery in Ehrenbreitstein (on the opposite side of the Rhine). On Thursday we will have another vinery visit, at the Schwaab vinery, approximately 500 meters to the southwest, along the Moselle.
Friday
- 9:15 to 10:45 lecture unit 9
- 10:45 to 11:30 general discussion

Participants are expected to have a model in mind of which they would like to build a simulation model. These models should be presented in the Monday discussion classes. Laboratories will give hands-on practise in the simulation methods presented during the lectures.

The second and third week will be devoted to additional examples of models taken from the different approaches presented during the first week. More tools will be presented, and more room will be given to hands-on practice. The following topics are foreseen in the second week, lectures will usually start at 09:15

03.09.01 The FIRMA Models (Michael Möhring)
04.09.01, SDML as an agent-oriented tool (Christian Oelbermann)
05.09.01 Agent Technology in Software Engineering and Robotics (Ulrich Furbach)
06.09.01, 10:15 !! Microsimulation with UMDBS (Thomas Sauerbier, Darmstadt)
07.09.01 Simulation and Axiomatisation / Agents, Hierarchies and Sustainability (Klaus G. Troitzsch)

The third week (Monday through Wednesday, in room MA 120) will deal with time series analysis.